No, Rachel isn't expected to hit Southern California as a hurricane. Here's the real risk

Headlines this week have warned that "Hurricane Rachel" is headed for Southern California. The storm is real and it is turning toward the region, but the latest forecasts tell a more specific story: Rachel is no longer a hurricane, and forecasters expect it to arrive weaker. The most immediate danger is in the water.

## Where Rachel is now

As of 8 a.m. PT Thursday, Rachel was a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, about 915 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It was moving west-northwest at about 7 mph.

Earlier in the week, Rachel was a hurricane. The NHC's Thursday forecast discussion says dry air is "slowly degrading" the storm and that cooler water, dry air and increasing wind shear should keep weakening it.

## What the forecast actually says

The NHC expects Rachel to keep moving west-northwest for about a day, then turn sharply northeast and speed up on Saturday. It is forecast to approach extreme northern Baja California, the northern Gulf of California and Southern California over the weekend, likely at tropical storm strength.

The NHC's forecast table shows winds dropping to about 50 mph as it nears the coast and about 45 mph once it is inland on Sunday. By Monday, forecasters expect it to be a post-tropical system over the interior West.

Forecasters also say there is "high uncertainty" about whether Rachel will still be a tropical storm when it arrives or will have become post-tropical. Either way, the NHC says it is expected to bring heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds to parts of the region.

As of Thursday morning, no watches or warnings were in effect. The NHC said tropical storm watches could be issued for parts of Southern California and northern Baja California as soon as Thursday night.

## The real risk: surf and rip currents

The NHC says swells from Rachel are likely to cause "life-threatening surf and rip current conditions" along the Southern California and northern Baja coasts through the weekend.

CBS Los Angeles reported that strong waves were already hitting the Long Beach boardwalk on Wednesday night, as the region came off a long heat wave. Moisture from Rachel is also expected to bring a threat of flash and urban flooding to the Southwest, and CBS Los Angeles reported that parts of Los Angeles, Orange and Riverside counties could see up to an inch of rain on Monday.

## Why this is rare

Tropical storms almost never reach California. According to the National Weather Service, as reported by CBS News, a 1939 storm known as "El Cordonazo" was the only tropical storm to make landfall in California in the 20th century. Its floods killed at least 45 people in Southern California, and dozens more died at sea.

The weather service considers an 1858 storm near San Diego the only true hurricane to hit the West Coast. In 2023, Hilary prompted the first tropical storm warning ever issued for the San Diego region, according to the NWS San Diego office as cited by CBS News.

## What it means for you

If you live in or are traveling to Southern California this weekend, the most important step is to stay out of the ocean when lifeguards or the National Weather Service warn of dangerous surf. Rip currents can pull even strong swimmers away from shore.

Check your local National Weather Service office for watches, warnings and flood alerts, since the forecast could change with each new NHC advisory. The next advisories are issued every six hours, and the track and strength could shift before the weekend.